New warming study devastates alarmist claims

Written by Michael Bastasch – original source

goreTwo climate scientists skeptical of man-made global warming are closely watching a study they say could be a “death knell” to climate alarmism.

A major scientific study conducted at the University of Reading on the interactions between aerosols and clouds is much weaker than most climate models assume, meaning the planet could warm way less than predicted.

“Currently, details are few, but apparently the results of a major scientific study on the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on clouds are going to have large implications for climate change projections—substantially lowering future temperature rise expectations,” Cato Institute climate scientists Patrick Michaels and Chip Knappenberger wrote in a recent blog post.

Michaels and Knappenberger, both self-described “lukewarmers,” cited a blog post by Reading scientist Dr. Nicolas Bellouin on the preliminary results of his extensive research into this rather vague area of climate science.

Bellouin wrote “there are reasons to expect that aerosol-cloud interactions are weaker than simulated by climate models – and perhaps even weaker than the preliminary… estimate.”

If Bellouin’s preliminary results hold (or are revised downward), that would mean there’s less of a cooling effect from human-created aerosols interacting with clouds, which morph clouds so they bounce incoming solar energy back into space.

“It may be that aerosol-cloud interactions are lost in the noise of natural variability in cloud properties, but for such a large perturbation, the impacts are surprisingly hard to isolate,” Bellouin wrote.

For decades, scientists assumed aerosols — mostly emitted from coal plants, shipping, car travel and other industrial sources — had a sizable cooling effect on the planet, but that might not be the case. More importantly, however, is the fact that if aerosols don’t have much of a cooling effect, the planet is not as sensitive to increases in greenhouse gas emissions. That means less warming.

“Less enhanced cloud cooling means that greenhouse gases have produced less warming than the climate models have determined,” Michaels and Knappenberger wrote.

“Another way to put it is that this new finding implies that the earth’s climate sensitivity—how much the earth’s surface will warm from a doubling of the pre-industrial atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration—is much below that of the average climate model (3.2°C) and near the low end of the IPCC’s 1.5°C to 4.5°C assessed range,” they added.

Michaels and Knappenberger are particularly interested in Bellouin’s work since it seems to support a study from last year by Bjorn Stevens, a scientist at Germany’s Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. It found aerosols had much less of a cooling effect on the planet than assumed by climate models.

Stevens’s study suggested “that aerosol radiative forcing is less negative and more certain than is commonly believed.”

Independent climate researcher Nick Lewis incorporated Stevens’s findings with his own on how much warming people could expect from doubling atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Lewis found the upper bound estimate of climate sensitivity is from 4.5 degrees to 1.8 degrees Celsius.

In layman’s terms, doubling atmospheric concentrations of CO2 from around 400 parts per million today to 800 ppm in the future would cause 4.5 degrees Celsius of warming, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate model data.

Incorporate the Max Planck study results, and warming would only be as high as 1.8 degrees Celsius — less than half of what IPCC originally predicted.

Of course, Michaels and Knappenberger’s theory is not accepted by everybody. Stevens himself challenged their suggestion that climate sensitivity was lower because aerosols had less of a cooling effect on the planet.

“As they stand, the results of this new study seem to confirm the results of an analysis published last year by Bjorn Stevens of the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology which also showed a much smaller anthropogenic enhancement of the cooling property of clouds,” Michaels and Knappenberger wrote.

Stevens is entitled to his own opinion, not his own results. And now it seems his research is being supported by Bellouin’s work. With less aerosol cooling, climate models could be tweaked to predict less future warming.

“In the end, aerosol-cloud scientists reckon that it will come down to counting how often clouds happen to show strong sensitivity to aerosol perturbations,” Bellouin wrote. “Those discussions leave me with the feeling that such situations occur infrequently, and radiative forcing of aerosol-cloud interactions may need to be revised down to weaker values.”

Electric Rates This Time of Year

Is there a time of year that is best for shopping electricity rates? I am often asked this question but the reality is that there is no specific time of year that works best.

If there were a specific time of year when rates were lower you could make a fortune in the energy commodities market.

You could trade on the Chicago exchange each year and make a good living knowing when energy would be lower and you would never have to work again.

In reality seasonal weather changes, energy shortages, summer demand spikes are all built into the price of energy already.

For prices to go higher or lower in the summer you would need an abnormality in the weather or supply of energy to occur.

These abnormalities in supply and weather is what you would need to predict in order to price electricity prices correctly each year and come out with the cheapest price of the year annually.

Since nobody can accurately do this consistently this has a lot to do with why there are not thousands of professional energy traders becoming millionaires right now.

Also since you and I cannot do this we also can’t predict electricity prices being lower in the winter or the summer.

In reality your guess is a 50/50 crap shoot each and every time you lock in your electricity price for the year and hope you locked in while prices were near their bottoms and not their tops.

What you can do as a consumer is compare prices using a widget like the one we provide on our website. You enter your zip code and click compare and a list of providers and rates will appear.

Find a good cheap rate and lock in for a year and hope because that’s all you really can do, that prices in the markets are currently near their lows.

A good tip is if prices look relatively low to you or something affordable than that is a likely indicator that locking in for a year might not be a bad idea.

Pole and Wire Oncor Charges, Can Some Providers Charge Less?

Regardless of the provider you choose they all must pass thru the exact same fees from Oncor. This is a matter of legality. The Pole company can show no partiality to any provider in retail competition in Texas but must pass through the rate as approved by the Public Utility Commission of Texas. This TDSP charge will always be the same regardless of the provider as there can be no partiality given based on provider.

Reading from the PUC website you can read for yourself similar language as I have described.

“Transmission and Distribution Utilities (TDUs) must offer access to their wires to all REPs on a non-discriminatory basis under standard terms and conditions adopted by the Commission.”

“These areas are open to full retail competition as of January 1, 2002, and these TDUs charge the below rates to REPs.”

To see the rates in the Oncor area of Texas click here

The reason this topic has been brought up on this blog is due to the large amount of sales people out there that use the TDSP part of the bill to confuse customers about their rate in order to get them to switch providers.

You may hear from a retail electric provider sales person that their company does not charge the TDSP charge or that it is much lower than another provider.

Statements like the one above are lies and deceptions geared to getting you to believe a given rate from a new provider is cheaper than the one you have.

There are cheaper providers out there so shopping around is a good thing. When the cheaper rate being discussed is only cheaper because they argue regarding the TDSP part of the rate then take notice because you are about to be had.

Where this deception is most often encountered is through door to door sales people, responding to a newspaper ad in a thrift paper by calling number on ad, or via MLM sales people that may be regurgitating information they themselves do not fully understand.

However you heard about a cheaper rate by getting a lower TDSP charge this is very false information and by no means believe it. These people are either lieing or they have been led to believe something false and are now sending you down their gullible road.

In summary this article was written to help those navigate down a typical issue encountered when choosing an electric rate. If you have further questions please call or use our compare widget.

Electric Company Keeps Calling Asking Me to Renew My Contract

If you have an electric company calling you and sending you mail outs asking you to renew an expiring fixed rate contract you are likely benefiting.

Most people get their highest electric bill after they let their contract expire and the rate defaults to a variable market rate.

The variable prices are not hedged rates and so the provider is taking on a significant risk by selling a price that is not locked in.

The provider can eliminate this risk by adding in their profit margin and allowing the price increase that may happen to roll over to the customer.

Market electric rates can sometimes be lower than what you could sign up on with a fixed rate but an electric provider is unlikely to give you these savings if you did not renew your contract.

What they will do instead is give themselves an added 2 cents or more per kWh added to the existing profit margin.

So you may have had a significantly cheaper electric bill over past years while on a 1 year fixed contract.

Your electric bill might have been under $100 a month but as soon as that contract expired your rate went to a variable price and you racked up almost 2 months of usage on a higher electric rate and perhaps had a $200 plus electric bill for the two months you were off contract.

An electric provider that gave you an excellent deal in the beginning may have hoped a certain percentage of their customers would allow their contract to lapse so they could meet their profit target.

This is a warning to procrastinators. Don’t let your electric service contract expire without renewing with the same provider or shopping and ordering with a cheaper provider.

The providers would hope you will let it slide but it’s not a smart move for a family budget that needs to stay on target.

In summary, let me suggest a way to avoid the electric rate price uptick by setting an alarm to ring on your phone around the date of your contract expiration. Make a committment to shop and order electric service when that alarm sounds so you don’t pay $200 – $400 more for electricity than you really needed to.

Climate Insanity on steroids!

popeEconomies collapsing, Middle East imploding – and Obama & Pals obsess over … the climate!

Essay by Paul Driessen

The Middle East is imploding. Islamic State butchers are annihilating Christian and other communities. Putin is sending arms to Assad. Under the Obama-Iran nuclear deal, the mullahs will get $100+ billion to expand their proxy terror war on Israel and the West. Saudi Arabia has 100,000 empty air-conditioned tents but won’t take any of the millions who’ve been driven from their homes. Neither will most of the other 22 Arab League nations or 57 Organization of Islamic Cooperation member countries.

Instead, millions of mostly Muslim migrants, militants and refugees are heading to Europe – with limited money, education, job skills, or desire to assimilate. They demand entry into EU countries whose energy, economic, employment and welfare systems are already foundering or nearing collapse.

EU nations have hobbled their nuclear and carbon-based energy systems so completely that unsubsidized German and Danish electricity prices are almost ten times higher than in US states that still rely on coal-fired generation. Industrial giant Siemens is cutting 1,600 jobs in its power and gas division, companies are hard-pressed to compete internationally, and 0.5% annual economic growth is deemed “robust.”

So naturally, President Obama, Pope Francis, the European Commission, United Nations, and many poor countries are obsessed with – climate change! It’s insanity on steroids. The alarmist assertions are absurd.

“Climate change is already disrupting our agriculture and ecosystems, our water and food supplies,” Obama recently inveighed. “If we do nothing, Alaskan temperatures are projected to rise between six and twelve degrees by the end of the century.”

 

Read more: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/09/21/climate-insanity-on-steroids/

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